Democrats have rarely controlled a chamber in the Arizona Legislature since the 1960s, but the state could see a seismic shift next week
Pollster Mike Noble said his internal models project Democrats winning the state House and earning a split in the Senate as the most likely outcome of the Nov. 3 election.
An Arizona pollster said next week’s election is projected to create a historic shift in Arizona’s political landscape.
Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights, told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Tuesday that his internal models favor Democrats winning the state House, tying the Senate and holding the governor’s office.
“A couple of small races may decide a major change in public policy here in Arizona, which … has been very Republican-controlled for a long time. But you have a scenario where you could have a Democrat governor and possibly two Democrat chambers,” Noble said.
Since 1966, Democrats have emerged from elections with a majority in the 60-member House just three times (1974, 1976 and 1990) and never managed better than a 15-15 split in the 30-member Senate.
Democrats have 61% chance of winning Arizona House, pollster says
Noble said his model for...