More work is needed to plug Hong Kong’s labour gap
Problems including workforce ageing and job mismatch demand a more precise, well-crafted government response
manpower projectionoffers some short-term relief, but includes a big warning. The shortfall expected by 2028 has narrowed to 130,000, down from the 180,000 forecast two years ago. Yet the workforce itself is set to shrink from 3.47 million last year to 3.4 million in 2028. That is roughly 20,000 fewer workers each year, even after counting imported labour and talent. Without those import schemes, the labour force would fall to 3.21 million and the gap would widen to 300,000. The city is holding back a demographic tide, not turning it.
The problems are threefold. The first is ageing. Workers aged 25 to 34 are projected to decline by 64,000 over three years. The median age of manual labourers has reached 54, and that of skilled technical workers is 50. Together, these two groups account for about 40 per cent of the projected shortage, with 48,000 to 53,000 technicians and 36,000 to 41,000 manual workers needed. Aviation, construction, healthcare, innovation and city operations – the sectors underpinning Hong Kong’s ambitions –...