U.S. retail fresh vegetable prices were 6.3% higher in July 2026 than a year earlier, according to the USDA's Economic Research Service. Tomato prices increased 12.8%, while lettuce prices rose 7.5%. Federal economists expect vegetable prices to continue rising through the remainder of 2026.
Farm labor availability remains a concern for the fresh produce sector. A Michigan State University model developed with the farmer-led group Grow It Here estimated that a hypothetical 10% nationwide reduction in farm employment could increase prices for around US$115 billion worth of specialty crops by about 3%, adding approximately US$3.4 billion to consumer costs. The calculation is a projection rather than a measured decline in employment.
Recent California data indicate smaller labor impacts than those reported during individual enforcement incidents in 2025. A joint Michigan State University and California Farm Bureau survey of more than 500 growers across 50 of California's 58 counties, conducted between late 2025 and early 2026, found that fewer than 1% reported losing workers directly to enforcement actions. Around 15% reported losing workers because of fear and anxiety, while roughly ...