My weekly bias on gold remains bearish following the break below the previous weekly swing low and the $3,950 support zone. I’m now watching whether this area turns into resistance, potentially opening the way toward the demand zone around $3,350–3,450.
Since the early-year peak, gold has developed a sequence of lower highs. The summer recovery failed to reverse that structure, and the subsequent decline pushed through the $4,180–4,360 area before breaking the previous weekly low near $3,950.
Positioning adds context to this view. The COT report dated October 27 shows non-commercial traders holding a net-long position of 186,451 contracts, down 13,414 from the previous week. Long positions declined while shorts remained almost unchanged. I interpret this as reduced bullish exposure, with speculative positioning still firmly net long. Commercial traders also reduced their shorts, so the report does not provide a uniformly bearish signal.
Retail sentiment is more heavily tilted toward buying: approximately 71% of the volume is long. Within a declining market, I consider this a secondary contrarian factor.
November seasonality offers another supporting consideration. The five- and ten...