Goldman Sachs estimates AI off-balance-sheet commitments hit $4.1 trillion

Goldman Sachs estimates AI off-balance-sheet commitments hit $4.1 trillion

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Big Tech's data center promises now dwarf the debt that actually shows up on its balance sheets

Goldman Sachs has put a number on Big Tech’s AI building spree, and it is a big one. The bank estimates that hyperscalers carry $3.6 trillion in lease and purchase commitments.

Add Nvidia, Broadcom and SpaceX to the tally, and total off-balance-sheet commitments climb to about $4.11 trillion. Most of that money has not been spent yet, which is exactly why credit analysts are paying attention.

What Goldman actually counted

The estimate comes from a report by Goldman Sachs credit strategist Amanda Lynam. It focuses on five hyperscale tech companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle.

Those commitments split into two buckets. Roughly $1.7 trillion is tied to lease obligations, and about $1.9 trillion covers other purchase commitments.

More than 75% of the hyperscalers’ lease obligations have not yet begun, according to the report.

The leases mostly cover data centers, infrastructure and equipment that the AI industry needs to run. The purchase commitments, meanwhile, include...