The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects grocery prices to average 2.3% higher in 2026 than in 2025, and prices at restaurants and other food-away-from-home spots to average 3.5% higher, according to its October 2026 Food Price Outlook.
Those averages hide wide gaps between aisles.
How much the 2.3% hurts depends on what sits in the cart. Fresh vegetables are forecast up 5.8% and nonalcoholic beverages up 4.4%. Dairy is forecast down 0.4%.
Beef is the outlier
Retail beef and veal prices in September 2026 ran 3.5% above September 2025. The USDA expects beef production to stay below year-ago levels through the end of 2026, and it forecasts retail beef and veal prices up 8.7% for the year.
Pork is forecast up 1.0% and poultry up 1.2%. A cart that swaps even part of its beef for those may land closer to the 2.3% average than one built around steaks and roasts.
Eggs give some relief
Retail egg prices were 20.6% lower in September 2026 than a year earlier, and the USDA forecasts a 29.3% drop for the full year.
The department ties earlier spikes to an avian influenza outbreak that began in 2022. Egg prices rose 32.2% in 2022 and 21.9% in 2025. It projects higher production in 2026 as fl...