Here’s why oil prices are falling on a ceasefire Russia says doesn’t exist
AI Sentiment: 35/100 Bearish
This score is generated through AI-driven analysis of the article's content.
Devesh KumarDevesh K.
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Go long the distillate/jet crack spread (e.g., buy a distillate crack spread vs crude, or use a distillate/jet ETF pair trade). The article points to incremental Russian diesel supply (300k tonnes) that can tighten product markets even if crude stays volatile. That supports product margins relative to crude.
Key Risk: The diesel volumes don’t arrive or get rerouted/blocked (sanctions, logistics, or renewed strikes), so product supply doesn’t improve and crack spreads collapse.
Sell Brent crude exposure (e.g., short Brent futures or buy an inverse oil ETF). The market is already pricing a ceasefire that Russia hasn’t confirmed, while Russian diesel relief is small versus the broader supply disruption. With Ukrainian energy strikes continuing and Hormuz shipping risk still extreme, downside is capped and rallies can fade fast.
Key Risk: Russia actually confirms a real energy ceasefire and Ukrainian attacks on refineries stop, making diesel exports reliably higher and stabil...