In 2026, 10 new medical schools have been announced, and several more have opened. Yet, they may not alleviate physician shortages.
Four notes on the current state of the physician shortage
1. Across 35 specialties, there is a projected shortage of 141,160 full-time equivalent physicians and a projected shortage of 70,610 primary care providers by 2038. Only five specialties are expected to see a surplus of workers: Critical care and pulmonology, endocrinology, emergency medicine, neonatology and neurology.
2. Physician specialties are seeing a growth rate of 3% to 6%. Dermatologists and psychiatrists lead in specialty growth at 6%; they are two of seven specialties that saw pay decreases in 2026. Overall, physician pay rose 3% in 2025.
3. On a specialty level, some of the highest-paid specialties are also among the most acutely short-staffed. Vascular surgery is projected to face the greatest shortage of any specialty by 2038, with supply meeting only 66% of projected demand. Ophthalmology follows at 72% adequacy, thoracic surgery at 73% and plastic surgery at 74%. All four rank among the higher-paying specialties.
4. Currently employed physicians who are considering leaving clini...