Investing.com -- Natural gas jumped as much as 8% on Monday, its biggest rally since September, and the weather did only part of the work. Hedge funds had built a record short position, so a modest shift to cooler forecasts forced them to buy back contracts. Natural Gas Futures are at $3.21 per MMBtu (+7.07%) as of 2:26 PM EST on Nov 9, 2026. Bloomberg noted December futures reached $3.216, the highest intraday price for the front month since Oct 16.
A Crowded Trade Unwinds
The setup was lopsided. Money managers' short-only position hit a fresh record last week as traders bet that a Super El Niño would bring the warmest US winter on record. An Investing.com energy report (Nov 4, 2026) called it the biggest short on record going back over a decade. Crowded positions can reverse fast. As Tradition Energy's Gary Cunningham put it, "even with the limited fundamental support from weather, the shorts are still being forced to cover, so today could be a wild ride."
The fundamental trigger was small. Commodity Weather Group now expects normal seasonal weather across the eastern third of the US through Nov 18, with above-normal temperatures returning afterward. Criterion Research estimates ...