When midterm avalanches crush incumbent parties, it isn’t useful to assign the blame to a single rock.
When Democrats got flattened in the 1994 and 2010 cycles, their fate was sealed not only by policy overreaches on healthcare reform — by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, respectively — but also by economic worries, cultural controversies, and impolitic comments by the president and his team. When Republicans got walloped in 1974, 2006, and 2018, there were multiple factors, as well, from the perceived malfeasance and scandals of administrations to painful price inflation and unpopular foreign policies.
Presidential disapproval is always present, of course, but it is never monocausal. On the eve of the blue tsunami of 2026, Donald Trump was one of the most unpopular presidents in modern times. Some voters resented his tariffs, which hiked consumer prices at a time of heightened concern about the cost of living. Some blamed the war in the Middle East for driving up energy prices, at least. Some disliked what they perceived to be rampant corruption, the excesses of immigration enforcement, or the president’s crude comments and distracted behavior. Among the many voters who shared all o...