Social Security’s Tax-Law Cost Put at $168.6 Billion
An actuarial estimate ties Trump's tax law to earlier trust-fund depletion, while tariff and energy inflation pose a separate risk to benefit costs.
The Social Security Administration’s actuaries estimated that President Donald Trump’s tax law would increase program costs by $168.6 billion over fiscal years 2025 through 2034 and advance retirement trust-fund depletion to late 2032.
President Donald Trump’s tax law has a quantified effect on Social Security’s finances: an estimated $168.6 billion increase in program costs over fiscal years 2025 through 2034. The effect of tariffs and war-related inflation is less settled, even though higher prices are already feeding into benefit adjustments.
That distinction matters for retirees. The tax-law estimate moves the projected exhaustion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund’s reserves from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032. Inflation could add pressure, but that possibility is not the same as a new actuarial depletion forecast.
The tax law has a measured funding impact
The Social Security Administration’s Office of the Actuary produced its estimate in ...