Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars come out of their bye with a 2.5-game lead in the AFC South and a home date with a Colts team that spent the week selling. Indianapolis traded Quenton Nelson to Seattle and sent DeForest Buckner to San Francisco on Tuesday.
Jacksonville (4-2) ranks fifth in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense and 15th on defense. The Colts (2-5) have lost three straight, most recently 16-10 at Minnesota, and rank 27th on offense and 21st on defense.
Across the 12 head-to-head categories below, Jacksonville ranks higher in 10. Indianapolis wins one, and the other is a tie.
Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes against four interceptions, 8.0 yards per attempt and a 106.3 passer rating, according to ESPN. Jacksonville ranks fourth in dropback EPA, and Indianapolis ranks 19th in dropback EPA allowed.
Category |
Jaguars Offense |
Colts Defense |
|---|---|---|
Overall EPA |
5th (0.117) |
21st (0.032) |
Overall Success Rate |
8th (46.8%) |
10th (42.4%) |
Dropback EPA |
4th (0.227) |
19th (0.084) |
Dropback Success Rate |
10th (49.1%) |
7th (42.5%) |
Rush EPA |
9th (-0.030) |
28th (-0.046) |
Rush Success Rate |
8th (43.8%) |
T-25th (42.3%) |
EPA = Expect...