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At an Oct. 2 rally in Mobile, Alabama, President Donald Trump said the war with Iran is “going to end very soon and probably right after the midterms.” Then came the promise: “as soon as it does end, oil prices will come tumbling down.” (1)
I hope he’s right. But I’ve been a CPA since 1981, and I’ve learned not to spend money I haven’t gotten yet. A price drop that hasn’t happened is in the same category.
Here’s where things stand. The national average for regular gas was $4.38 a gallon on Oct. 3, according to AAA. That’s down from $4.49 a week earlier, but up from $3.15 a year ago. (2)
The government’s own inflation numbers tell the same story. Through August, gasoline prices were up 27.4% over the previous 12 months, while overall inflation ran 3.4%. (3)
And the Energy Department’s statisticians do expect relief. Their September forecast has regular gas averaging $3.84 for 2026 as a whole and falling to $3.35 in 2027. (4)
So the direction Trump is promising isn’t crazy. The timing is the pro...