Most climate impacts are like repeatedly shooting ourselves in the foot: we keep emitting greenhouse gases, the planet warms and more heatwaves happen, and wildfires, and flooding, and drought. Science tells us that this is mechanistic: pull the trigger and you will get hurt.
But in some cases, large uncertainty remains. One particular concern is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the system of currents that transport a tremendous amount of heat from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe. As ever more icebergs and meltwater from Greenland rush into the north Atlantic, the AMOC is thought to be slowing down. Eventually it could even collapse, bringing “ice age” winters to Europe, raising sea levels in North America and disrupting vital monsoons in Africa and Asia.
Will that happen? We don’t know. Some research says the AMOC could cross a tipping point in centuries, some says decades and some says it has crossed it already. If we start reducing emissions, it may not happen at all. Scientists have long described it as low probability but high impact. You might think of it as climate Russian roulette.
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Scientists have long described the AMOC’s collapse as low p...